May 17, 2024

·Imported car market tends to be stable. It is estimated that 900,000 imported cars will be in 2020.

Under the premise of uncertainties in the purchase tax preferential policies in 2017, it is estimated that the sales of imported cars will be 1.09 million in the whole year, which is basically the same as in 2016. In the next five years, with the localization of sales models, the total number of imported cars will decrease from the product end, and the size of the imported automobile market will gradually decline to about 900,000.
At the "China Imported Cars High-Level Forum" held recently, Chen Quan, chairman of SINOMACH Co., Ltd. pointed out that due to the impact of destocking and localization, the supply and demand of imported cars in 2016 decreased compared with 2015, and it is estimated that the annual sales will be 110. About 10,000 vehicles, down 3% year-on-year. Under the premise of uncertainties in the purchase tax preferential policies in 2017, it is estimated that the sales of imported cars will be 1.09 million in the whole year, which is basically the same as in 2016. In the next five years, with the localization of sales models, the total number of imported cars will decrease from the product end, and the size of the imported automobile market will gradually decline to about 900,000.
  China's economy is initially stable
China's economy has started to decline from the growth rate in 2010 and entered the "new normal" of low-speed economic growth. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that the most important change in China's economy this year is the initial bottoming out of the growth rate. The growth rate of GDP has dropped from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.9% in 2015, and this year (2016) fell to 6.7%. Zhang Liqun said: "From the perspective of economic growth during the year, the Chinese economy has shown a stable situation, and this steady state is the bottoming performance, and the industrial growth has also shown its steady state."
The steady growth of industrial growth is related to market demand. The stable level of market orders will stabilize the sales situation, the operating rate will be stable, and the value-added level formed by the whole enterprise will be stable. Therefore, the stability of economic growth is very important for market demand. stable. Market demand is the so-called "troika", that is, exports, investment and consumption.
In recent years, consumption has maintained steady growth, according to Zhang Liqun. The total social consumption assessment from January to October this year increased by 10% year-on-year, significantly higher than the growth rate of 6.7% of GDP. From the perspective of market demand, the trend of sustained and steady growth is still quite obvious. Among the "three carriages", the steady growth of the consumption of this "horse carriage" is not the same as the rapid economic shift. The performance in this respect is quite prominent.
However, economic growth is not enough by consumption alone. The decline in export and investment growth has led to a growth rate shift in China's economy. The growth of exports increased by 29.2% from 2002 to 2007, but the average annual growth from 2008 to 2015. The increase was only 8.09%. Exports in 2015 were negative growth of 2.8%. In dollar terms, this year's negative growth of 7.7% in dollar terms in October this year is an important signal of economic decline.
From an investment point of view, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 24% in 2010 compared with the previous year, and increased by 10.1% in 2015 compared with the previous year. From January to October this year, it increased by 8.3% year-on-year.
   Imported cars are the product of industry diversification
Zhang Shuo, director of the European Automobile Industry Association's Beijing representative office, pointed out that imported cars are an inevitable product of the diversification of the automotive industry. There are different types of vehicles with different types, different prices and different trade forms. At present, domestic imported cars are mainly passenger cars, and the batch size is small. In the future, the production and research and development of high value-added products with technical characteristics are the development direction of China's automobile industry.
Zhang Shuo suggested that for the special nature of imported cars, China should introduce tailor-made regulatory requirements; for small-volume enterprises, it will adjust the certification and market access conditions to meet the requirements of the state and the government. , eliminating the certification procedures or verification tests before the small-volume production enterprises enter the Chinese market; for the new energy incentive policy, in the future when the conditions are ripe, the preferential policies for China's new energy vehicle policy can be “rain dew” Both are stained."
   Imported car market is stable
According to Chen Quanquan, chairman of SINOMACH Co., Ltd., China imported 1.04 million vehicles in the first nine months of 2016. It is estimated that 1.09 million vehicles will be achieved in the whole year, which is basically the same as the 1.1 million in 2015.
From the perspective of the proportion of imported auto market, it is estimated that imported cars account for 4% of total auto sales for the whole year, which is a decline. From the perspective of imported car models,
In terms of the structure of each model of the imported car, the sales volume of the models below 1.6 is increasing. From 2016 to the present, it is 41.9%, but the SUV has declined for the first time. The import volume of new energy vehicles increased by 2.5 times, but only accounted for 1.3% of the total imported cars.
For 2017, under the premise of uncertainties in the preferential tax policy for purchases, SINOMACH expects to sell 1.09 million imported cars throughout the year.

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