May 19, 2024

Heavy truck sales in Shandong should have been at the bottom, and future industry growth will gradually increase year-on-year


Recently, the Huatai United Automobile Group in Shandong Province conducted a survey on the heavy truck industry. The survey targets include two companies listed in the heavy truck industry: CNHTC and Tianrun crankshaft; four heavy truck dealers in Liaocheng City; and a non-listed company in the heavy truck industry: Longkou oil pump nozzle factory.


As far as research is concerned, it is still relatively broad. Regarding the sales of heavy trucks that the market is most concerned about, the results of the survey allow us to continue to maintain our view of the industry report “This is the worst and best moment” released in mid-April. The heavy truck sales volume should have been at the bottom, and the year-on-year growth rate of the industry will gradually increase. Only the macroeconomic policies will be difficult to make drastic changes again. The current round of heavy truck sales growth will be slower.


China National Heavy Duty Truck, with its heavy weight, has followed the industry in the process of lightweighting, but the models to be launched have made progress in lighter weight. The current inventory of heavy truck dealers is still high.


The short-term performance of Tianrun's crankshaft is still largely determined by the heavy-duty industry. The long-term perspective is the horizontal expansion of the heavy-duty crankshaft to the light crankshaft and the disjointed connecting rod. We believe that despite the threat of potential ThyssenKrupp in the heavy crankshaft market, the performance of the company's products in the export market proves its global competitiveness, and the influence of ThyssenKrupp's entry is controllable. The light crankshaft market is less dispersed due to low technical barriers, and a large part of it is provided internally by the automaker. It is expected that the profit rate of this part is lower than that of heavy crankshafts, but the growth is also certain. We are more optimistic about the discontinuous connection business, because higher technical barriers will result in higher profits.


At present, the inventory of dealers in Liaocheng area has decreased slightly compared with the same period of last year. This is the conclusion drawn from heavy truck dealer surveys. The Regulations on the Protection of Highway Safety has little effect on the current overload, and it has played a certain role in exceeding the limit.


Weifu Hi-Tech's biggest competitor in China is the Longkou Oil Pump Factory. However, compared with Weifu, the long-distance pump technology gap is far. The National IV standard, which is expected to be implemented in 13 years, drove the Long Pump to the corner, but Dragon Pumps did an action that we considered quite risky: invest 2 billion yuan to do high pressure common rail. First of all, we do not think that Bosch will sell the electronic control system to Long Pump, because this will damage its own interests, and the uncertainty of Long Pump's own research and development of the electronic control system is quite large. It is expected that a huge investment will be required and the investment scale will probably exceed. Mechanical parts may not be successful either. However, we will closely track its technological progress.


The author believes that the current problems in the Chinese auto industry are still many, and these need us to further explore the solution. In the first half of the year, the overall trend of the auto industry is not very good, but some companies are still in a better state of performance, through the Beijing Auto Show. With great opportunities, the commercial vehicle industry will also have new action adjustments. Some professionals believe that the commercial vehicle industry will heat up in the second half of the year. We will also look forward to China's auto industry becoming more international.



Popsicle Machine

Popsicle Machine,Popsicle Maker Machine,Popsicle Making Machine,Popsicle Ice Cream Machine

Wuxi Danxiao Machinery Co., LTD , https://www.wuxidanxiao.com