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The enterprise has also expanded its expansion potential. Many delegates pointed out that under the drive of the “benefits†of the “big fourâ€, aniline enterprises have set off a new wave of production expansion in recent years.
First, the use of hydrogen resources to promote the supporting aniline project. At present, both upstream and downstream facilities are necessary for new or expanded aniline installations. Because the construction of aniline project can not be separated from hydrogen, so many companies such as chlor-alkali, coal chemical and other companies, in order to make full use of hydrogen to produce the benefits, most of the new aniline installations within the company to form an important part of the industrial chain. The bullish view on the aniline market has accelerated the pace of expansion and new construction in the industry and made it a new growth point for the company.
The second is that the high profit rate of aniline products has allowed companies to expand and expand. Since last year, most of the aniline prices have remained high, and the comprehensive profit rate has exceeded 15%. The decision-making level of enterprises is optimistic about the long-term development of aniline products. Some new projects also refer to the market trend in the past two years and make good investment prospects. The establishment of the report resulted in an upsurge in the construction of the aniline project and a prosperous scene.
Third, the growth of downstream demand stimulated the expansion of the aniline project. In the past two years, with the start of construction of domestic MDI, additives, and dyes, the demand has increased significantly. For instance, Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai BASF and other enterprises have increased their purchases and once brought the market to a climax.
Fourth, the demand in the international market has been boosted. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for aniline in the international market has started to increase, which has become another major cause for the reconstruction and expansion of the aniline project.
Follow-up development is tested At the same time, companies that have launched or expanded aniline projects do not have sufficient understanding of the potential risks in the market and lay hidden dangers for subsequent development.
First of all, with the scarcity of resources and the deterioration of the environment, the development of green chemical industry has received more and more attention, and the utilization value of hydrogen has also increased, such as the use of hydrogen reduction of amino anisole and pure hydrogenation of benzene. However, companies have limited development of other uses of hydrogen energy. Once the aniline market changes, not only will the aniline industry face excess pressure, but it will also cause waste of hydrogen resources.
Second, some companies have overlooked the current state of overcapacity in the aniline industry in recent years. Behind the high growth rate of product profitability, the imbalance between supply and demand in the short-term market has been overshadowed. Since 2009, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic aniline industry has been hovering at 60% to 70%, and even at the lowest level, it is only about 40%. The rise in the market caused by the imbalance between supply and demand masks the actual status of excess capacity, which is one of the factors that cause project investment errors. Simply expanding the scale can only further aggravate the excess pressure.
Third, while some aniline companies are optimistic about the downstream growth, they have overlooked that these large-demanding enterprises have already established their own aniline plants. If these companies with matching devices start driving normally, the independent aniline plant will face product problems.
In addition, although the demand for aniline exports has increased, the actual operation has faced resistance. According to reports, due to the complexity of export procedures, most domestic aniline production enterprises have a negative attitude towards exports. At present, aniline-exporting enterprises only account for 10% of domestic production enterprises, and their export volume is relatively low. Therefore, ignoring the fact that there is an export demand and practical operation is not feasible, the domestic aniline market is under great pressure.
The long-term trend is still promising According to statistical information, the annual production capacity of aniline currently under construction and completed in China has reached more than 1 million tons, accounting for 68% of the actual total production capacity, which is 125% of the actual production in 2009. In addition, Wanhua’s 360,000-tonne unit is scheduled to be put into operation recently. Hebei’s newly established 30,000-tonne unit will be put into operation at the end of the year, and Shandong Jinmei’s 30,000-tonne new unit will also be completed and put into production. The excess market pressure will gradually emerge.
However, some people in the industry are also positive about the industry's development prospects. According to Shu Minqiang, manager of Jilin Cornell Chemical's sales department, the company is optimistic about the future development of the aniline industry. In addition to the 600,000 tons of aniline project that has been built in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, the construction of the second phase of 180,000 tons of aniline equipment is under intense construction. Next year In the second half of the year, it will become the largest aniline producer in China.
Shu Minqiang introduced that today a group of downstream enterprises have settled in the surrounding areas of Cornell due to resource advantages and built a basic and complete industrial chain. A healthy and stable development pattern is expected to gradually form.
Excessive overcapacity hits the aniline industry
“The rapid and significant increase in domestic production capacity will surely bring greater challenges to the aniline industry, which has continued to have excess pressure, and this will affect the long-term development of aniline companies. This is another unavoidable issue facing the aniline industry since 2008. Excessive pressure.†At the 40th Aniline Enterprise Symposium held in Zhangqiu, Shandong in late October, the problem of overcapacity caused by large-scale expansion once again became a hot issue.