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The overall manufacturing industry contracted its official manufacturing PMI for 49.8% in January, which was significantly lower than expected and its previous value. It has fallen below the 50% line for the first time since October 2012, reflecting the contraction in the overall activity of the manufacturing industry and increasing downward pressure on the economy.
According to the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation’s Steel Logistics Professional Committee, the steel industry’s PMI shows that both domestic supply and demand in the domestic steel market have contracted at both ends, prices of steel and raw materials continue to fall, inventory pressure on steel companies remains high, and the short-term domestic steel market is weaker. Difficult to change.
According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises in the middle of January was 1.6941 million tons, which decreased by 91,000 tons in the same period of last year, a decrease of 5.09%; at the end of January, the inventory of steel stocks of key enterprises was 14762.26 million tons, which was a month-on-month increase. 112.56 million tons, an increase of 8.25%. In the case of a sharp drop in production volume, the inventory volume has increased significantly, reflecting the relatively weak market demand, and the pressure on steel companies to face inventory and capital.
In response, Qiu Yuecheng, a senior researcher at the Nippyu Shinkansen Line, said that the two major PMI data show that the overall activity of the manufacturing industry, represented by steel, is shrinking. In January, the domestic steel price plummeted to a low in nearly 13 years, and the price of imported iron ore dropped sharply. To the lowest level in the past six years, market confidence is still at the bottom.
Judging from the PMI index of the steel industry surveyed and issued by the China Iron and Steel Federation Logistics Committee, the value was 43.0% in January 2015, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The index fell to the lowest level in the past 11 months, and For the consecutive nine months, it is below the 50% line, indicating that the overall situation of the domestic steel industry is still severe.
Analysts said that in the last three months, the performance of futures (2480, -16.00, -0.64%) steel products continued to outperform the spot market. Currently, futures prices have provided strong guarantees for steel mills, and they have basically entered the market with no price in the spot market. Under the circumstances, the rebound space of steel futures is generally limited.
Bottom-bottom rebound is still waiting for the weather to pick up The current domestic steel prices have fallen to the lowest level in more than a decade, steel mills have stepped up efforts to reduce production and maintenance, and industrial chain inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years.
The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation’s Steel Logistics Professional Committee stated that after entering March, temperatures in various regions began to gradually pick up, construction projects started to increase, and market demand will gradually expand. In particular, the effectiveness of infrastructure investment will gradually show up, and the market will have certain Promote the role, it is expected that the price is expected to bottom out.
In 2014, due to the plunge in the prices of imported iron ore and other raw materials, domestic iron and steel companies experienced a difficult recovery in the profitability of steel prices. According to statistics from the China Steel Association, in 2014, large and medium-sized steel companies realized a profit of 304.44 billion yuan, an increase of 8.754 billion yuan.
However, Qiu Yuecheng believes that by 2015, steel prices have plummeted and the price of raw materials has fallen by a relatively small margin. Domestic hot rolled coil prices fell by RMB 500/ton in January, and rebar prices fell by more than RMB 300/ton. Far larger than the decline in the price of raw materials such as iron ore and coal coke during the same period, the loss of steel enterprises has rapidly expanded, and the overall profitability of iron and steel enterprises in 2015 will be difficult to be optimistic.
The overall shrinkage of the steel industry has no market price
Analysts said that in the last three months, the performance of futures (2480, -16.00, -0.64%) steel products continued to outperform the spot market. Currently, futures prices have provided strong guarantees for steel mills, and they have basically entered the market with no price in the spot market. Under the circumstances, the rebound space of steel futures is generally limited.