February 19, 2020

·China Insurance will be in the process of reforming the auto repair factory or falling down in large numbers

At present, the size of China's auto insurance market is about 500 billion, of which about 60% of the claims are about 300 billion, about 2/3 of the lost cars, and 1/3 of the losers. Because the current total loss market is not large, it means that About 200 billion is used to repair a car, of which 100 billion lost time, 100 billion lost accessories.
In 2015, the aftermarket was weak and the competition was fierce. 4S stores and roadside shops closed down. The social maintenance plants and roadside shops that rely on low-cost, fake and shoddy accessories and stealing will have less and less living space. With the continuous improvement of the country's efforts to combat counterfeit and shoddy accessories/accessories, the car's cognitive ability has been greatly improved, and the 4S shop's continuous reduction in after-sales service prices, social maintenance plants, roadside stores will become increasingly difficult.
In 2016, a large number of repair shops will face closure:
The reasons are as follows:
(1) Large insurance companies will strictly control the risk of claims and will actively reduce the number of cooperative repair shops.
(2) Maintenance, maintenance, and squirting chain enterprises with more efficient service are emerging one after another. One chain-type single store can replace 3-5 traditional repair shop capacity.
(3) Once Internet consumption habits are developed, 20% of stores will receive 80% of online orders, and 80% of repair shops will be difficult.
From the overall scale of the US auto insurance claims, the annual size of 150 billion US dollars, half of which pays for the car, half loses "people." In this part of the car, half of the compensation is lost, 1/3 is lost to the total loss, and the remaining 15% is the cost of claims. This means that the market size of the accident vehicle repair industry in the United States is about 200 billion yuan. what is this concept? At present, the size of China's auto insurance market is about 500 billion, of which about 60% of the claims are about 300 billion, about 2/3 of the lost cars, and 1/3 of the losers. Because the current total loss market is not large, it means that About 200 billion is used to repair a car, of which 100 billion lost time, 100 billion lost accessories. In the United States, 18 million accident vehicles a year, the maintenance cost is 200 billion, which means that the bicycle maintenance costs are close to 10,000 yuan, and the domestic 80 million accident vehicles, the average maintenance cost per vehicle is 2,500 yuan. This means that the price of passengers repairing cars in China is basically one-fourth of that of American counterparts. This is basically understandable. At present, the monthly income of domestic paint workers is about 5,000-10,000 yuan, the US counterpart is about 30,000 yuan, and our paint workers are about a quarter of the income of American counterparts - income and cost are basically proportional.
There are about 40,000 auto repair shops in the United States. Considering 18 million accident vehicles, it means that an average auto repair shop only repairs one car per day. In the United States, it encounters traffic accidents. Calculated, the country is calculated according to the day! If we follow the same maintenance efficiency, we need 4 times the auto repair shop, which means 160,000 auto repair shops, but in fact, the current 4S shop has an average of 5-10 cars per day. About five times that of American counterparts. Taking into account the advantages of maintenance efficiency, even if there are 80 million accident vehicles in China, the actual required auto repair shop should be basically the same as the United States - China only needs 40,000 auto repair factories! How many domestic countries are there? 27,000 4S shops must have a squirting workshop, which is currently in a state of large-scale idleness. As for the first- and second-class comprehensive repair factories, including at least 100,000 homes with no qualifications, it is good to have 30% of them in normal profitability.
From the ecosystem of several of the largest insurance companies in the United States, even national insurance companies have fewer than 10,000 repair shops, mostly less than 5,000. At present, Ping An, PICC, and several insurance companies in the Pacific have tens of thousands of cooperative repair shops. This makes the risk management of the repair shop extremely difficult. It is an inevitable choice for insurance companies to reduce the cooperative repair shop. It can be foreseen that the future Internet insurance companies will inevitably reduce the number of cooperative repair shops from the perspective of controlling risks. Through the means of information management of the Internet, the maintenance resources will be concentrated in the maintenance of the maintenance risks by means of survival of the fittest. plant.
With the emergence of integrated financial service providers such as “People's Insurance, Pacific Insurance, and Ping An”, in the future, regardless of 4S shops or repair shops, once they are discovered by insurance companies in terms of good faith claims, they will inevitably be recorded by these financial companies in the corporate credit history. Applying stains, this will result in not only the economic damage of the repair shop, but also the reputation of the company. Whether it is the experience of the United States or the reality plan of China, the number of cooperative repair shops of large insurance companies will not exceed 10,000. The future interconnection insurance companies may only screen cooperative repair shops from the cooperative repair factory system of traditional insurance companies. This means that if you can't enter the scope of the insurance, repair shop, the repair shop, it is basically impossible for the repair shop to get the maintenance resources of the insurance company. There is no accident car maintenance support, and the repair shop is difficult to survive.
If estimated according to 10,000, this means a 2/3 elimination rate of the existing cooperative repair shop. At present, even if the living conditions are still only 30% of the repair shops, if there will be 2/3 of them will be closed down in the next few years, that is, only 10% of the large maintenance plants will survive in the future, assuming 400,000 Calculated, this means that only about 40,000 large repair shops can survive better. As the insurance industry takes out the two killers of zero-to-zero ratio and standard working hours of painting, the right of the 4S shop in the future will be greatly reduced. In the next few years, if the main engine factory can't get the hot models, the brand's 4S shop closure will continue to emerge. From the current situation, the collapse of thousands of 4S stores in 2016 is a high probability event, and the newly added 4S shop is small. Probability events mean that hundreds of thousands of people are unemployed. For the comprehensive repair factory, if similar insurance companies reduce the number of cooperative repair shops to 1/3, this means that tens of thousands of comprehensive repair factories have closed down, and hundreds of thousands of people are also unemployed.
Overall, the next few years will be the process of de-capacity in the automotive aftermarket. The arrival of unemployment in the industry is a high probability event. Although car sales are growing, even if we reach the current 250 million US ownership, our current number of repair shops is surplus. If we continue to improve the maintenance efficiency of a single store, we will need fewer repair shops instead of More. The survival of the fittest is an inevitable result, and the era of managing repair shops by traditional experience has passed. There are not many time left for the transformation of the 4s shop and the repair shop. Whoever upgrades the transformation first, whoever takes the lead.

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