March 29, 2024

This year China's power gap has been significantly reduced

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This summer, during the peak period, the nation’s largest power shortage will be around 18 million, which is the forecast made by the National Energy Administration on the 13th in the National Electric Power Summit Summer Press Conference. The maximum power gap expected this year is reduced by nearly half compared to last year, and is the lightest level of power shortage. However, it needs to be vigilant that, in the case of a slowdown in the construction of thermal power projects and large uncertainty in the availability of hydropower, there is a possibility that the power gap will further expand.

According to industry express reports, from January to May, the entire society used 1.96 trillion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell 6.2 percentage points, which is a relatively low level in recent years. Among them, the total social power consumption in May was 405.1 billion kwh, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 6 percentage points.

“In terms of regions, the growth rate of electricity consumption in six provinces and regions in Liaoning, Jilin, Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Gansu was below 3%. In May, there were 3 provinces and cities with negative electricity growth, namely Shanghai, Hubei and Jiangsu. In terms of industries, from January to May, the use of electricity for the three industries and residents continued to grow at a relatively fast rate. The second-generation electricity consumption increased by approximately 3.8%, the rate of increase decreased by 7.9 percentage points, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society dropped by approximately 6 percentage points. Among them, only the metallurgical and building materials industries have driven the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society down by about 3.5 percentage points, said Lu Junling, deputy inspector of the Economic Operation Regulations Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission.

While the demand for electricity has dropped significantly, the supply side has continued to improve. The price of coal continued to drop, and the water flow in the major river basins in the country was also significantly better than the same period last year. Based on this, the National Energy Administration initially estimated that during peak summer this year, the maximum daily electricity consumption may reach 15.5 billion kilowatt-hours to 16 billion kilowatt-hours, which is a 3% to 6% increase from last year's peak, and the nation’s largest electricity gap during peak hours. In the 18 million kilowatts or so, tight areas are mainly Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hebei, Chongqing and other places.

In 2011, a total of 24 provincial power grids across the country were in short supply, and the maximum power shortage exceeded 30 million kilowatts. “Compared with previous years, this year's power gap has been significantly reduced, and the largest gap has accounted for less than 3% of the maximum electricity load. This is the lightest level of power shortage, and the duration will not be too long, that is, it will not appear. Large-scale and persistent power shortages, said Lu Junling.

However, he also pointed out that if there is an extreme situation such as sudden flooding during the flood season, high temperature and high humidity weather, the electric power shortage may further expand. In addition, due to factors such as the loss of thermal power companies, financing difficulties, the cyclical increase in the number of supporting documents obtained, and the declining power demand increase in recent years, the construction of thermal power projects has slowed down this year, which will also affect the power supply.

From January to April, the thermal power project completed an investment of 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%. “As of the end of May, the total installed capacity of single-unit power plants with a capacity of more than 6000 kilowatts was 1.04 billion kilowatts, of which thermal power installed capacity was 773 million kilowatts. The installed capacity of the five largest power generation groups accounted for about 49% of the total installed capacity. Now they are used for thermal power investment. Less and less, it is only about 40% of that in 2006, said Hao Weiping, deputy director of the Electric Power Department of the National Energy Administration.

In addition, local and enterprises generally have the problem of “fighting for roads, promoting the slowdown of work in the early stages, and striving for approval and slowing construction”. It is understood that one-third of the approved projects are lagging behind in construction progress, and the new production capacity has dropped significantly. The peak of summer can only be put into production about 18 million kilowatts before summer, which is about one fifth less than the normal year. At the same time, the progress of the preliminary work of the project has slowed down. The scale of thermal power projects that have been agreed to carry out preliminary work has reached 120 million kilowatts, which is the highest level in the same period of the calendar year. However, 55% of the project's previous working hours have exceeded 20 months, and it has been unable to meet the approval requirements.

“This trend will affect the healthy development of the power industry, and it will take a long period of time for power construction. We cannot wait until the power supply becomes tight and then proceed with construction. We must maintain a relatively stable power construction scale,” said Hao Weiping.

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