April 02, 2020

In the short term, the downside of the steel market is not enough for textile machinery manufacturers to properly reserve

In the case of energy-saving emission reductions and blackouts, production of some steel companies has declined slightly, but the total output of steel products has kept rising. It is understood that domestic crude steel output in September was 47.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%; average daily average crude steel production was 1.5983 million tons, which was a decrease of 67,500 tons from August; monthly output and daily output of crude steel were all set at new lows during the year. The output of pig iron and steel in September was 45.7 million tons and 65.43 million tons, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 6% and an increase of 4.5%. In the fourth quarter of 2010, China's “energy-saving and emission-reducing, power-hungry and power-restricted” policies have gradually faded away. Iron and steel enterprises resume production, and the replenishment of inventory demand coupled with the demand for iron ore “winter storage” from steel mills will boost iron ore. Demand has picked up, and in the context of a clear excess of global liquidity and rising commodity prices, iron ore prices may continue to rise in the fourth quarter.

There has been no fundamental change in the domestic steel market's continued decline in recent days. The prices of hot-rolled sheets remain stable; the prices of cold-plate prices are confined within a narrow range; the prices of plate prices are mainly stable; the market prices of plating fall; the prices of steel strips are basically stable; the prices of welded pipes continue to decline; the prices of seamless pipes are mainly stable. , The market price of profiles declined. The specific changes in stainless steel and cast iron prices are as follows:

Stainless steel market: The domestic stainless steel market price is temporarily stable. Affected by China's interest rate hike, the recent market wait-and-see atmosphere has increased. Some stainless steel market prices have declined significantly, with a drop of around 300 yuan/ton. Market turnover was flat and resources increased from the previous period. The sharp decline in the nickel price of the London Metal Exchange market last week caused the stainless steel market, which has been consolidating recently, to retreat. Due to the strong price increase of stainless steel and electrolytic nickel in the previous period, it has not been fully consolidated and there is a demand for metal prices in the short term. After the stainless steel adjustment and consolidation, the medium-term stainless steel market price is expected to rush to around 24,500 yuan/ton.

Pig iron market: The domestic pig iron market is basically stable. Due to the lack of transaction resulting in weak price support, the price of pig iron in some regions has declined. At this stage, the slight decrease in the market price of pig iron did not significantly increase sales, and due to high freight rates, there was no obvious price advantage after it was shipped to other regions. Therefore, the current market heat has subsided and the price trend has been relatively stable. The energy conservation and emission reduction policies adopted in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, and other regions have had a certain impact on the price of pig iron. In some areas, pig iron prices have risen and transactions have improved. However, the demand of downstream steel companies and casting companies has not been significantly enlarged, and the market has been unstable, which has brought negative factors to pig iron. At present, the increase in upstream costs will provide a certain degree of support for the current price of pig iron. From a nationwide perspective, policy changes will still have a significant impact on the trend of the latter part of the pig iron market. It is therefore expected that the pig iron market will remain in the status quo in the short term, with a slight oscillation.

Analysts believe that, with the recent steel production materials have shown a strong upward trend, the downward price of steel prices temporarily blocked. For steel mills, order prices for all steel mills in October were generally higher than current market prices. Due to the persistence of cost pressures, the profitability of the steel mills is not good. However, the existing inventory pressure is not significant. Some steel mills will continue to be affected by emission reductions. In the short term, there is very limited room for downward adjustment of the mill prices. In summary, the recent steel prices are still mainly stable, and there is little room for downward steel prices, and textile machinery manufacturers can make appropriate reserves.

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