Rao Da: Fuel supply cannot withstand 200 million ownership in 2020

Yesterday, Rao Da, Secretary-General of the All-China Federation of Fellowships, estimated that it is difficult for the auto market to achieve positive growth next year when he accepts an exclusive media interview.

"The most optimistic forecast is that next year's auto sales will be about the same as this year." Figures from the CLUCC show that as of the end of October this year, China's auto sales volume was 15.16 million, and the C-FIT estimated that annual sales would be 18.5 million units, compared to last year. Less than 3% increase. However, there are three special factors this year: First, due to the extremely popular car market last year, some manufacturers have calculated the excess sales last year to this year's performance. As such, this year, there were about 400,000 to 500,000 vehicles sold this year; Among the new sales, there are 350,000 vehicles for the export of automobiles. In addition, about 400,000 vehicles in this year's sales are the manufacturers' stocks for dealers. "To add up these three factors, at least 1.15 million units in this year's sales are not derived from domestic sales." Rao Da said, "In Other words, even if the auto market sales in 2012 are the same as this year, the actual performance is stronger than this year's. ."

Rao Da believes that even if China’s car sales start to grow from zero next year, it will have more than 200 million units by 2020, a figure that neither road nor fuel supply can afford. “At present, the rate of private cars in China is 89%, while the rate of private cars in Japan is 38%.” Rao Da believes that it is imperative to increase fuel tax and other measures to limit the excessive growth of car ownership.