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Phosphorus ore prices rose more than 200% in the past two years
China's phosphate resources are limited, with the current mining period expected to last less than 20 years. Although the country has total reserves of 13.1 billion tons, after accounting for design and mining losses, only 2.1 billion tons remain as industrial reserves, of which high-grade ore is just 1.1 billion tons. This scarcity has led to a sharp increase in phosphate ore prices, rising over 200% in the past two years. As a result, securing a stable supply of phosphate has become a critical challenge for industries reliant on it, such as yellow phosphorus production.
The integration of mineral phosphorus and phosphorus is becoming a key trend in the yellow phosphorus industry. With China’s phosphate reserves projected to be depleted within two decades, the pressure on raw material supply has intensified. Additionally, recent power shortages have forced some yellow phosphorus plants to halt operations. In the first half of this year, Yunnan implemented strict power rationing measures targeting yellow phosphorus producers, highlighting the importance of energy stability for continuous production. To mitigate these risks, major yellow phosphorus companies have started purchasing phosphate ore and building their own power plants to ensure supply chain resilience.
Refinement is increasingly seen as the future direction of the phosphorus chemical industry. While low-value products like sodium pentaoxide are already oversupplied in the domestic market, export remains a viable option to absorb excess capacity. However, high-value-added products such as toothpaste-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate, food-grade, and electronic-grade phosphoric acid are still in short supply both domestically and internationally. These fine phosphorus chemicals represent the next growth area for the industry, offering higher margins and long-term sustainability.
In addition, the production of phosphate fertilizers is facing overcapacity. With new diammonium phosphate (DAP) production capacity set to reach around 5 million tons in the next two years, China will surpass its current annual import volume of 3 million tons. This surplus is expected to create intense competition in the DAP market. Only those manufacturers that integrate acid or mineral fertilizer production will be able to maintain a competitive edge in this challenging environment.