2013 Machinery Industry Market Situation Analysis

The market demand situation in 2013 will rise moderately from the previous year, but the external demand situation is not optimistic, and the factors of rising costs will continue for a long time. Under the general principle of “stability for progress” determined by the central government, machinery companies will pay more attention to improving the quality of operations. The growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 12%, the profit growth rate will be around 8%, and the export growth rate will be around 8%.

(I) Advantages

First, the macroeconomic situation began to pick up mildly. Judging from the current situation, the domestic macroeconomic situation is recovering moderately, and the CPI has returned to a relatively stable range, thus increasing the scope for policy flexibility. It is expected that the growth of the domestic consumer market is expected to remain stable and investment growth will recover somewhat next year. The domestic market is also expected to show a mild warming trend.

Second, the policy environment is conducive to the development of the machinery industry. The Central Economic Work Conference clarified the economic policy tone of “stability for progress” and released the monetary policy to appropriately expand the scale of social financing, maintain a moderate increase in loans, and effectively reduce the financing costs of the development of the real economy, which are favorable to the development of the real economy. Supported two strategic emerging industries such as “high-end equipment manufacturing industry” and “new energy vehicle”, “04” special projects, nuclear power special projects and other major special projects, and industrial policies such as the “three-base” plan have been implemented one after another for the development of the machinery industry. A favorable policy environment.

(B) adverse factors

First, export growth is very difficult. The economic growth in developed countries is weak and the competition in the international market is becoming increasingly fierce. Although China's machinery industry still has certain international comparative advantages, the rapid growth of exports that has lasted for many years has triggered increasingly severe trade frictions. The sharp drop in export growth in 2012 has reflected this trend. Not only that, but also the developed countries are still vigorously expanding their advantage in the high-end equipment market in China, and have begun to intensify efforts to squeeze my midrange market.

Second, rising costs and costs have evolved into long-term pressures. With the transformation of China's economic growth pattern, the rising costs of labor, financing, raw materials, and power purchases are being transformed from the short-term difficulties of enterprises to the pressures that need to be faced in the long term.

Third, inflationary pressures may rebound. The recent loose monetary policies implemented by the major international economies will increase the pressure on imported inflation in China through the international trade of bulk commodities, which will lead to further squeeze on the industry's benefits.

(III) Development Forecast in 2013

Based on the above analysis, the market demand situation in 2013 will be moderately higher than that of the previous year, but the external demand situation is not optimistic, and the factors of rising costs will continue for a long time. Under the general principle of “stability for progress” determined by the central government, machinery companies will pay more attention to improving the quality of operations. It is expected that in the first quarter, due to the weaker orders in the previous period, the data for the start of each major indicator may not be optimistic, but the trend will be more stable thereafter, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than 2012, and the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be 12%. About profit growth is around 8%, and export growth is around 8%.

2013 is an important year for fully implementing the scientific concept of development. The industry must clearly understand the profound changes in the industry development stage and economic environment, and more actively promote the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of development methods, and comprehensively improve the quality of industry development. .